b'2019 State Report NEW MEXICO Petroleum Marketers Association (NMPMA) ReportCounty is up 60 percent. The rest of New Mexicoentities that lost business due to the shut-experienced very little growth in the first five monthsdown will never recoup that lost income, of FY19. Bernalillo County grew 3.9 percent year-over- leaving an unknown amount of lost year, while the rest of the state grew less than 1 percent.income for those workers and subsequent losses in PIT revenue to New Mexico. Oil Price UncertaintyThese impacts and risks validate previous concerns and demonstrate the need for The states considerable dependence onrobust general fund reserve levels. direct and indirect oil and gas revenuesmeansNew Mexico is expected to have a 1.2 New Mexico Notes the forecast remains at risk of sudden oil price shocksbillion dollar surplus for this yearsRuben Baca that could lead to dramatic increases or decreasesbudget, after six years of very lean andNMPMA Executive Directorin revenues from severance taxes, federal royaltyshortfalls in the budget. This is made payments, gross receipts tax, and corporate incomepossible by the drilling for oil which has tax. This adds significant uncertainty to the revenuereached record highs, and is expected to forecast. Stress tests of the December 2018 consensuslast for the next five years. Hopefully, estimate showed revenues could come in $1.3 billionthe Legislature takes advantage of the above or below projections depending on oil priceextra dollars and spends them wisely and changes and associated impacts on production anddoesnt squander the opportunity.drilling activity. SGlobal EconomicUncertainty Thank You 2019SponsorsSigns of slowing growth in China,risingPREMIERuncertainty over a U.S.-China trade war, concerns over Brexit negotiations, and fears that the Federal Reserves expected rate increases will slow U.S. growth are all contributing to waning confidence in the strength of the global expansion. Despite the warning signs of a potential global slowdown, major forecastingPLATINUMagencies continue to have solid U.S. growth projections for 2019.National EconomyForecasts by IHS Global Insightestimate the federal government shutdown that started December 23 and ended January 25 reduced GDP by 0.1 percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2018 and first quarter of 2019. While the impacts of the federal shutdown are still unknown, New Mexico will likely see an impact on its personal income tax (PIT) and GRT revenues, as about 3 percent of the states working population is employed by the federal government, and more are employed through federal contracts. Federal initial unemployment claims grew from 18 the week beforeGOLD BRONZEthe shutdown to 182 by mid-January, and non-federal initial unemployment claims jumped from 892 the week before the shutdown to 1,664 by mid-January.SILVERWhile furloughed federal employees can expect back pay for the withheld compensation, some private-sectorCORPORATEWPMA News / Autumn 201945'