b'2024 State ReportWASHINGTON Independent Distributors of Energy ReportCould Washington See aChange in Political Tide in 2024?Vote Yes, Pay Less: Of the voters polled on the states new long-term care insurance Article by Donna Gordan Blankenshipprogram, 47% said they wanted to repeal it, 25% were against the initiative and 28% were undecided. The numbers were mostly the Lea McCulloughWashington voters are favoring same after the pro and con arguments were offered, with 45% for, WA Association27% against and 27% undecided.Executive Director anti-tax initiatives.The slogan on Initiatives is Vote Yes, Pay Less,Pollster Stuart Elway notes that its very difcult to predictmeaning, if you vote YES on the 3how people will vote on initiatives six months before an elec-(maybe 4) initiatives on the November tion, but history gives him some clues. Most initiatives, not all ballot, consumers will save money through of them, tend to poll well at the beginning of the cycle and lose the repeal of costly taxes in Washington. ground over the campaign, Elway said. I would expect these More than 40% of voters told the Cas- numbers to shift.cade PBS/Elway Poll they would like toThis latest Cascade PBS/Elway Poll surveyed 403 registered repeal WAs new capital gains tax as wellvoters statewide by land line, cell phone and via text to online as its carbon cap-and-invest system.survey. The poll has a 5% margin of error with a 95% level of The three tax initiatives destined forcondence, which means if the survey had been repeated 100 Washingtons November ballot are popu- times, the results would be within ve percentage points of these lar with voters, according to the results ofresults at least 95% of the time.a new Cascade PBS/Elway Poll. One of the things you cant tell from these results is whether None of the proposalsto repeal thevoters understand that a vote for the initiatives would actually be capital gains tax, to kill the cap-and-invest carbon pricing system,a vote against these taxes. Voters can easily be confused by initia-and to make the long-term care insurance program optional tives to repeal earlier legislation because a yes vote is actually a gathered support from a majority of voters in the May 13-16 poll.rejection instead of an afrmation. And the campaigns for and But two of them got pretty close.against the proposals are just beginning, so feelings may change as people learn more about the Of the voters polled on thepotential impact of their vote.language of the three initiativesPatricia Kienholz, a Republi-funded by hedge fund CEOcan voter from Spokane who Brian Heywood, 41% said theyparticipated in the poll, said she would likely vote yes to prohibithas not decided how to vote state agencies from imposingon the initiatives because she any type of carbon tax program,hasnt yet done her homework. 31% would vote no (to keep theAlthough she only votes for cap-and-invest program) and 28%Republican candidates, she is said they were undecided. Thosemore flexible about tax policy.numbers changed slightly43% to repeal, 34% to keep the pro- Im not opposed to all tax gram and 23% undecidedwhenincreases. It just depends on the poll asked a second questionwhat it is, Kienholz said, that explained some pro and connoting that she is particularly arguments for each position. ambivalent on the capital gains Asked about the capital gains tax,tax. She raised two children 47% said they would vote yesas a single mom and beneted to repeal, 36% would vote no,from some state programs, so and 17% were undecided. Askedshe understands the need to again after the poll outlined somefund the state government.pros and cons, only 40% of voters were in favor of the initiative,Im a Republican, but Im a social scientist. I recognize the 41% wanted to keep the new tax and 19% were undecided. validity of social support and entitlements, she said.48 www.wpma.com / Summer 2024'